Exane expects 2026 earnings growth for European OEMs, flags Chinese imports

Volvo AB

11/12/2025 10:26

** Exane BNP Paribas says European carmakers have held market share well against Chinese imports, but warns that continued resilience needs stronger tech and more government support

** It expects 2026 as a year of earnings growth, coming from improved EU demand from subsidies, cost savings and new product offerings after years of investments

** The broker sees upcoming "automotive package" from EU as a possible positive catalyst, potentially relaxing emission rules for 2030, 2035 and requiring more EU-made content

** However, it estimates imports from China in the sector to rise around 25% in 2026

** It raises Ferrari RACE.MI to "outperform" from "neutral" expecting Ferrari to boost earnings in 2026 mainly through higher prices and a favourable product mix, as resale prices have stabilised

** It cuts Stellantis STLAM.MI to "underperform" from "neutral", expecting recovery to come slower than consensus forecasts

Company
PT
% Change
Old Rating
New Rating
Ferrari NV RACE.MI
399.0
-4%
Neutral
Outperform
Porsche AG P911_p.DE
47.0
+9%
Neutral
Neutral
Renault RENA.PA
46.0
+2%
Outperform
Outperform
Stellantis STLAM.MI
7.8
-11%
Neutral
Underperform
Volkswagen VOWG.DE
153.0
+13%
Outperform
Outperform
Volkswagen VOWG_p.DE
143.0
+14%
Outperform
Outperform
Volvo Car AB VOLCARb.ST
24.0
+50%
Underperform
Underperform

 (Reporting by Mirko Miorelli)

 ((Mirko.miorelli@thomsonreuters.com))